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But that doesnt mean we should help him stay in power either. Publication Type: Analysis and Commentary Print the Page In recent weeks, two Ukrainian counteroffensives one in the south near Kherson and another in the east near Kharkiv have pushed back Russian forces after months of grueling deadlock across the front lines. Is Tellis right? But it wasnt followed by any escalation. Weekly update on developments in India and its neighbors. Its a process that has played out many times throughout history. Moscows arms exports have fallen to levels not seen since the Soviet Unions collapse. But its not just a problem of collecting intelligence, Konaev told Vox; intelligence analysis and dissemination on the Russian side also suffer from disorganization, mistrust, fear, and failure of command and control, leading to institutional incapacitation. Its a fundamental question of who is in charge of the intelligence gathering, processing, and coordination, on which front, and are they speaking to each other, she told Vox. To be clear: This is not a prediction; its a warning. He said the United States would also seek to ensure a stronger democracy and flourishing economy for Ukraine. Share this - Link copied. Staff officers often seethe quietly . It would reward the aggressor and punish the victim., To liberate territory, Ukraine must smash fortified Russian defenses. Its natural to feel worn out by months of full-scale war. And the prospect of the main roads into the Donbas being under the watch of Ukrainian guns leaves the likelihood of Russia picking up its stalled offensive in the east as a moot prospect, Ukrainian officials saidirrespective of the trouble the Kremlin has faced in replenishing the ranks of its depleted military. But we have a pathway to victory. The covert war gaming in which militaries are supposed to probe their own weaknesses and strengthen or otherwise compensate for those areas are kept under wraps for a reason. List of military engagements during the Russian invasion of Ukraine If the Kremlin did conduct these kinds of stress tests, its not clear what lessons were learned, if any. VATICAN CITY (Reuters) - A man visiting St. Peter's Basilica on Thursday stripped off his clothes and stood naked on the church's main altar in what appeared to be a protest against the war in . AS OF JAN. 24 Kramatorsk Soledar Bakhmut CONTROLLED BY UKRAINE CONTROLLED BY RUSSIA Horlivka Detail area Kyiv Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute's Critical. More than that: Offered the choice of fighting or fleeing, many of them appear to be escaping as fast as they can. While its impossible to predict how the fighting will play out there, Ukraines ability to take the battlefield initiative and exploit Russian weaknesses as well as materiel, financial, and intelligence support from Western countries put Ukraines military in a stronger position. Be Prepared for Ukrainian Victory Over Russia - Foreign Policy By contrast, there is no transition mechanism in Russia. By Brian Whitmore, a nonresident senior. But that notion is wrong. INSKEEP: I recently read a dispatch in The New Yorker magazine by a correspondent who spent two weeks with a Ukrainian unit on the front lines near the city of Bakhmut. How are pro-Kremlin Russian media portraying Ukraine's victories Twitter:@JackDetsch. Ukraines lightning strike operation in the Kharkiv region demonstrated the Ukrainian militarys ability to take advantage of those deficiencies to recapture not just territory, but strategically important transport and resupply hubs for the Russian militarys eastern front. In his view, Ukrainians can either become Russians or die. It would legitimize Russias land grab. Adding to the confusion, Putin in May switched responsibility for intelligence gathering in Ukraine to the GRU, the military intelligence unit, after repeated failures on the part of the FSB, the state security services, prior to and in the early stages of the war. In fact, U.S. intelligence . Though Russia is part of its own military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and conducted war games just this month, the public war gaming that we see, that is essentially a show of force, Konaev said. They can still inflict misery on civilians, as they did in todays apparent attack on the electrical grid in Kharkiv and elsewhere in eastern Ukraine. That original mission has already failed. BShow moreut Ashley J. Tellis, a longtime watcher of U.S.-India relations, says that Washingtons expectations of New Delhi are misplaced. Please enable JavaScript for this site to function properly. Are we in the West really prepared for a Ukrainian victory? This was CNBC's live blog tracking developments on the war in Ukraine on sept.6, 2022. . It also seems as though Russia is operating from a Soviet-era personnel playbook that doesnt function in the current landscape. How Ukraine's Counteroffensives Managed to Break the War's Stalemate - ", Russian troops no longer hold any settlements in Ukraine's Sumy region, says governor, "Ukrainian Forces Recapture Eastern Town Near Russian Border", "Russian troops "fully withdrawn" from northern Ukraine: UK Ministry of Defense", "The Ukrainian authorities declare an end to the combat mission in Mariupol after weeks of Russian siege", "Town under Russian control 'not losing to the ghosts', "Ukrainian troops have retaken full control of Kyiv region, says deputy defence minister", "War in Ukraine: Amongst wreckage in Hostomel Airport near Kyiv", "Heavy shelling is heard west and northwest of Kyiv, as two children are reported dead", "Ukraine says Russian forces pushed back around Kyiv but fighting continues", "Some Russians surrender but situation remains grave US", "Heavy fighting leaves much of Volnovakha in ruins", "Mykolaiv region on edge amid fear of a new Russian offensive", "Live updates: ICRC asked to repatriate bodies of soldiers", "Ukraine says Russian forces pushed back around Kyiv but fighting rages", " : ", "RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, APRIL 1", "Russia bombs Ukraine cities, despite pledge to pull back from Kyiv", "Ukrainians have retaken Irpin from the Russian invaders. Many things about the current Russian political system are strange, and one of the strangest is the total absence of a mechanism for succession. But Ukraines lightning success also brings some possible new risks. Actual experience shows that whenever Putin faces a failure he opts to downplay and conceal it, not to double down. It ultimately means that Putin will be forced to accept Ukrainian terms, even if he denies it publicly. These weapons would allow us to suppress Russias artillery barrage. Putin has made good on this promise. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the U.S. wont let Putin impose his will on other nations. How are other countries being impacted as a result? Russia-Ukraine war updates for May 30, 2023 - CNBC British Defence Intelligence reported on Monday that Russias remaining troops in Ukraine were highly likely being forced to prioritize emergency defensive actions, and it assessed that trust of senior leaders within the ranks was likely to deteriorate further after the losses. Where he intended to divide, he has united.. ? HELSINKI Proposals to impose cease-fires or territorial concessions as means to halt the war in Ukraine would serve only to legitimize President Vladimir Putins aggression and encourage future assaults, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday as he laid out U.S. strategy for hardening Ukraine against long-term Russian threats. Ukraine live briefing: Kremlin blames Kyiv for drone strikes on Moscow; U.N Drones hit Moscow, shocking Russian capital after new missile attack on Kyi Russians snitch on Russians who oppose war with Soviet-style denunciations, The American military veterans whove fallen in Ukraine. What to Know About Russia's Capture of Bakhmut in Ukraine - The New which was home to some 70,000 people before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, is in the eastern industrial region known . Contrarian View: Ukraine 'Victory' Against Russia Scenario Ukraine's 'Iron General' Faces Off Against 4th Russian War Commander Part of Russias challenges with intelligence collection are apparently due to the heavy losses that some of its elite teams including reconnaissance units have suffered due to poor planning and lack of heavy armored support, according to a recent report from the Congressional Research Service. WASHINGTON Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces as early as next month, American officials say, in the face of immense risks: Without a decisive victory . That prospect has divided NATO members between countries that support Ukrainian membership and those that worry that it might trigger Russian backlash. DMYTRO KULEBA is Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. So far this month, Ukrainian officials say the military has reclaimed around 1,200 square miles of Russian-occupied territory in the offensive, which was enabled by Russia sending units to reinforce the south. Stay updated on the topics you care about with email alerts. Anne Applebaum: Lukashenko is easier to unseat than Putin. Instead, the negative reaction was aimed at her opponent, Marta Kostyuk, for not participating in the usual postmatch handshake at the net. According to leaders who have recently spoken to Putin, he is sure that his special operation will, as we heard he told one European leader, achieve its goals. It isnt hard to see why: Russian invaders have been able to crawl forward in the Donbas by resorting to total artillery terror. I have spoken with a number of decision-makers in African, Arab, and Asian states. They should remember that a. Ukrainian victory would make the world more secure. Since the beginning of the war, Russian failures its inability to achieve its initial goal of a short, surgical operation to remove Ukrainian leadership, its withdrawal from Kyiv and reorientation toward the south in the spring, and numerous tactical blunders have been surprising. So maybe we should begin the interview right there. The rapid advance of Ukrainian forces has also redoubled calls among Russian nationalists to launch a full-scale mobilization, which so far Putin has resisted, relying instead on contract fighters and conscripts already in the ranks. Evening roundup with our editors favorite stories of the day. It also killed a lot of Ukrainian troops. Such fears may be deliberately fueled by the Kremlin itself for strategic purposes. Please follow our comment guidelines, stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others beliefs. Reader support helps keep our explainers free for all. The frontline: The Washington Post has mapped out the 600-mile front line between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Ukraine Claims Biggest Victories Since Russia's Invasion - Foreign Policy Anne Applebaum: It's time to prepare for a Ukrainian victory. Ukraine live briefing: Biden hails unity of energized NATO; 3 killed in R Pentagon discloses its paying for Elon Musks Starlink internet in Ukraine, Border towns in western Russia report heavy shelling and rocket fire, Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putins red lines. The Ukrainians may be tired but the Russians are terrified., Jack Detsch is a Pentagon and national security reporter at Foreign Policy. Support our mission and help keep Vox free for all by making a financial contribution to Vox today. Critical civilian infrastructure can be a legitimate military target under the laws of war in some situations, such as when it has been converted for military use, but Russias strikes appeared to be purely retaliatory in nature. As a strategic consensus emerges in Europe, France is in the way. What exactly are these differences, and how will they impact the worlds relations with China? More ways to stay updated on global news: By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. Over the weekend, Ukrainian troops pushed into Izyum and Kupiansk, a major railway and transport hub in the east of the country that helped spur the Donbas offensive that Russian President Vladimir Putin declared in April. The West must cut off Russian access to the international maritime shipping industry. Of course, theres still a message of, We will stay in it until we reach our goals, although the goals continue to evolve and shift and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has demonstrated that he is able to re-articulate the goals to fit the changing reality on the ground without suffering much, she said. Delivered Thursday. Thats because Russian President, To avoid growing weary of the war and falling for misleading narratives, the West needs to understand exactly how Ukraine can win, and then, advanced heavy weapons. Thankfully for Europe and the United States, Ukraine is fighting this dark force, and it is motivated to keep doing so until it wins. He could even trigger a new war in the western Balkans, where increasingly antagonistic Serbian elites have looked to Russia for inspiration and support, The West must therefore not suggest peace initiatives with unacceptable terms and instead help Ukraine win. the international maritime shipping industry. May 11, 2022. cannot afford any sanctions fatigueregardless of the broader economic costs. That played out in the Kharkiv offensive in early September, when Russian forces fled in the face of oncoming Ukrainian troops, as opposed to a planned, orderly withdrawal, John Spencer, the chair of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum, told Vox. Explore the benefits included in your subscription. The latter step may seem difficult to carry out, but it is, in fact, highly achievable: Russias export-oriented economy relies heavily on foreign fleets to deliver its goods abroad, and the fleets could stop serving the country. Ukraines Lightning Counteroffensive Approaches the Russian Border, Click + to receive email alerts for new stories written by. It disengaged from Syria, Yemen, and other ongoing conflicts that once generated front-page news. To avoid growing weary of the war and falling for misleading narratives, the West needs to understand exactly how Ukraine can win, and then support us accordingly. In early June, French President Emmanuel Macron told journalists that the West must not humiliate Russia so that it can build an exit ramp for the country to end the war. Why Ukraine's Victory in Kherson Is So Important - 19FortyFive Retrieved 5 April 2022. . However, the defense itself has proven to be strategically important for Ukrainian forces who have likely culminated - Wagner attack in Bakhmut. Do you really think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions? Zelensky said in a Telegram post. Putin marks Victory Day in Moscow - NBC News Strikingly, the Ukrainian militarys recent victories have even forced the Russian media to acknowledge that there are setbacks, Rita Konaev, deputy director of analysis at Georgetown Universitys Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told Vox. Ukraine is planning to fight back. the West simply cannot agree to Russias demands. While control of the Dnipro River remains in question because of Russian forces along the east bank, Ukraine can now envision a reality in which the river is once again useful for economic traffic. Putin's Russia looks increasingly desperate as Ukraine war nears - CNBC Although Russian troops are not fighting in the north, they are still resisting the Ukrainian offensive in the south. Nevertheless, I repeat: It is inconceivable that he can continue to rule if the centerpiece of his claim to legitimacyhis promise to put the Soviet Union back together againproves not just impossible but laughable. There is nothing more dangerous for the European Union and NATO than having an emboldened Russia or pro-Russian proxy across more of its eastern borders. That sense of stasis permeates the whole structure, top to bottom, with the paralysis in the Kremlins decision-making, since the spring, Clark said, resulting in a Russian approach to the war [that] has not really changed since then, to its own detriment. Holly Ellyatt @HollyEllyatt.

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